The credit-before-equities point is the one I hadn't seen framed that way. Well said.
I would push on the China section though. It's all supply side, CXMT and domestic DUV. The other direction matters too. China gating exports of stuff the West already depends on. InP is the example I keep coming back to. AXT is Fremont HQ, NASDAQ listed, but manufactures in Beijing through Tongmei and has been under export licensing since Feb 2025. North America was 1% of revenue in Q1. Permits, not capacity.
Curious how you'd fit that in. It's a physical bottleneck, but the constraint is policy rather than fabs.
It’s interesting how quickly valuations can change while the underlying demand for power, memory, and data centers stays the same.
Excellent insights. Something’s gotta give. My guess, the price of tokens is going to go up not down.
I agreed with you . AI is at its infancy, I always remind myself how I should recognise the Cloud business when AWS is at its infancy.
The key is to differentiate the players
Great article. Thank you
The credit-before-equities point is the one I hadn't seen framed that way. Well said.
I would push on the China section though. It's all supply side, CXMT and domestic DUV. The other direction matters too. China gating exports of stuff the West already depends on. InP is the example I keep coming back to. AXT is Fremont HQ, NASDAQ listed, but manufactures in Beijing through Tongmei and has been under export licensing since Feb 2025. North America was 1% of revenue in Q1. Permits, not capacity.
Curious how you'd fit that in. It's a physical bottleneck, but the constraint is policy rather than fabs.